Much to the surprise of nearly every major pollster in America, the unprecedented 2016 election poll failure meant that much of America failed to recognize Donald Trump’s chances. Folks, there’s no way to sugar-coat the truth: nearly all polls got it so wrong that they hoodwinked many of us into expecting a completely different outcome.
As your Facebook feed probably already told you, the election’s results were deeply shocking to millions of Americans who approached the election with much confidence behind the now-defeated Hillary Clinton. Let’s put politics aside, and give you a rough sketch of how Trump defied all expectations and became our next president.
What actually happened? Clinton’s ‘Rust Belt’ death spiral
The polls told us Clinton was in the lead by a comfortable margin and, early in the night, it was anyone’s race. Steadily, we began to see extremely surprising results telling a different story. The first sign of things to come began in Florida, although Trump’s win wasn’t really a huge surprise, because the Sunshine State is always a wild card, and the numbers were, as they historically have been, nail-bitingly close.
As the night progressed, the states that were assumed to be in Clinton’s camp began to bleed red, brightening Trump’s prospects. While there were disappointments for Clinton across the board, make no mistake: Clinton’s collapse in the Rust Belt delivered the election to Trump.
Trump winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio — dubbed Clinton’s “Midwest firewall” by many — ultimately led to her electoral demise. It’s important to remember that these are the states that have lost a great deal of their manufacturing base in the past few decades. Declining jobs, wages and living standards for blue-collar workers in these states has created real resentment at their place in a globalized economy and, as we learned, an identification with Trump’s protectionist economic message.
Republican control
Ladies and Gentleman, let’s not forget that House and the Senate are now fully in Republican control. The Supreme Court has one vacancy ready to be filled, and several justices are approaching retirement. Trump’s win is huge coup for the conservative movement, and will overhaul Washington, D.C. as we know it.
Campaigning and governing are two very different activities. Now that Republicans are in charge, it remains to be seen whether they can actually deliver on their promises. If you recall when Democrats controlled all three branches of government back in 2009 right after President Obama got elected, they still had trouble pushing through their progressive agenda. They often blamed legislative failures on not having a “super majority” in the Senate, and Republicans will face many of the same challenges, as there are also ideological divisions within their party.
Takeaway
Many people have long suspected that modern polling was wildly inaccurate and would soon prove to be useless. 2016’s stunning reversal solidified the hard truth: polling is flawed to the point of extinction and the once-thriving industry will need a complete revamp in order to stay relevant.
For pundits, observers and voters, election night came as one surprise after another. Trump’s roll through the Rust Belt dashed Clinton’s hopes and reflected the deep-seeded discontent of former manufacturing communities at their place in an ever-changing economy. Whether Trump and Republicans capitalize on their sweep of American politics remains to be seen, but they will certainly have to reconcile a deeply divided populace.
Have something to add to this story? Comment below or join the discussion on Facebook.
Header image: Getty
