Could Bernie Sanders supporters vote for Donald Trump? It could come down to whether voters value “outsider” status ahead of other characteristics.
Looking ahead to the general
If the current delegate count differential persists, November’s general election will be a match-up between Trump and Sec. Hillary Clinton.
Similar to how some leaders of the Republican Party refuse to endorse Trump, many Sanders supporters are unwilling to drift into the Clinton tide. Most recently, a McClatchy-Marist poll suggested that a quarter of Sanders’ electorate would not vote for Clinton if she were elected Democratic nominee.
Some predictions suggest there’s a legitimate chance Trump could successfully appeal to the unclaimed progressive fringe.
The Trump/Clinton gap is closing
One quarter of voters “feeling the Bern” are essentially willing to forego a Democratically run White House in favor of an alternative to Clinton. On the other hand, nearly 90 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for Sanders if he were elected nominee. This could be an opportunity for Trump to wrangle anti-Clinton Democrats, and, consequently, shrink the gap between himself and the former Secretary of State.
In fact, that gap has almost already shut. According to general election polls, Trump stands a legitimate chance against Clinton. RealClear Politics’ poll aggregator predicted that he has a 0.2-point lead over Clinton in the general election. In less than a month, he has evolved from a political afterthought into a serious Clinton contender. On May 2, Clinton led Trump by over six points.
Independent voters are key
According to poll expert Nate Silver, it’s possible that Sanders’ supporters are partially responsible for this shift.
In a report published on May 19, the FiveThirtyEight founder reported that Clinton dominates the Democratic vote by 27 points. However, Sanders leads Clinton by 31 points among Independent voters.
He observed that if Clinton manages to persuade Independents, the general election polls might shift back in her favor. Otherwise, he noted, it could be a close race between her and Trump.
What do the polls say?
In an ABC/Washington Post poll published on May 22, 20 percent of Sanders’ supporters who responded said they would vote for Trump in the general election. Back in March, an NBC/ Wall Street Journal poll predicted that 33 percent of Sanders’ voters would not vote for Clinton. Eight percent of them said they could see themselves supporting Trump instead.
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The Guardian conducted a similar callout survey in which 500 of the 700 respondents said they would consider foregoing the Democratic vote in favor of the billionaire real-estate mogul. Unlike the ABC/Washington Post poll, The Guardian pointed out that it specifically sought out respondents interested in the topic of a Sanders-Trump switch.
Are Sanders and Trump that similar?
Though the majority of their policies — tax proposals, in particular — couldn’t be more dissimilar, the two candidates have a few loose traits in common.
For example, both have their unique appeal among workers in deindustrialized regions whose jobs have been replaced by cheaper overseas labor.
Trump and Sanders were the first candidates to openly oppose free trade deals, such as the impending Trans-Pacific Partnership, that could potentially risk shipping more jobs out of the country.
Furthermore, both candidates have spoken extensively on government corruption and consider themselves “anti-establishment.” Trump is a businessman who has never run for political office and Sanders has been an Independent for the majority of his political career.
One respondent from the The Guardian callout survey noted the similarity.
“Trump is an obnoxious vulgar blowhard who says foolish things,” he wrote.
“However, unlike Clinton – but like Sanders – at least he is an outsider who understands that the government and the economy are broken.”
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Perhaps the greatest common denominator is that neither can be bought. Sanders has received the vast majority of his donations from small individual contributors. Trump, on the other hand, didn’t need to ask for money during the primary elections because, as he has reminded everyone countless times, he’s “really rich.”
Another respondent from the callout said that she pools the candidates together for that exact reason.
“Both Trump and Sanders are non-establishment candidates who are not bought by the special interests that have control over policy and legislation because of their ‘bribes,’” she explained.
However, that could change during the general election now that Trump has created a joint funding campaign with the Republican National Committee.
Our take
While things are looking pretty wrapped up, Clinton has yet to officially solidify her nomination. Up until then, as the primary elections have proven, anything can happen to influence political allegiances among Sanders’ supporters.
The fact that some members of Team Sanders are already willing to cross political lines, even before Clinton’s nomination is announced, is indicative of a deep dissatisfaction with the status quo.
For some voters, allegiance to a party is not as important as the individual stances of a candidate and the desire for someone who promises to drastically change the system.
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Header image: Getty
