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2016 Election

What Next for Clinton and Sanders After Super Saturday?

Screen Shot 2016 03 07 at 1.56.53 PM
Screen Shot 2016 03 07 at 1.56.53 PM

“Super Saturday” on March 5 featured caucuses in Nebraska and Kansas as well as a primary in Louisiana; on Sunday, Maine held its caucuses. Sen. Bernie Sanders won in three of the four states. He earned 67 delegates over the weekend, compared to Clinton’s 64.

Sanders’ wins

On Saturday, Sanders won big in Kansas, claiming 67.7 percent of the vote compared to Clinton’s 32.3 percent. He took 23 delegates from the state, and Clinton took 10. The race was tighter in Nebraska, where Sanders won with 57.1 percent to Clinton’s 42.9 percent. He got 15 of the state’s delegates, compared to Clinton’s 10.

Finally, Sanders swept through Maine on Sunday with approximately 64 percent of the vote and 15 delegates; Clinton got seven delegates and 35 percent of the vote.

Clinton’s win

Clinton killed it in Louisiana, earning 71.1 percent of the vote; Sanders weighed in with 23.2 percent. Louisiana had the most delegates at stake of the four states: 51. Clinton got 37 of them, and Sanders got 14.

Delegate count

A quick googling of the candidates’ current delegate standing will show Clinton with more than twice as many dellies racked up as Sanders, but it’s important to note that many sources are including superdelegates in their counts.

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The supers have pledged support to candidates early on in the race, but they could change their minds at any time leading up to the Democratic National Convention in July, where the official nomination takes place. Treating them as already earned, then, is inaccurate.

The only sure delegates right now are those that are bound to their states’ primary or caucuses. So, the “true” delegate count after Super Saturday and Maine’s Sunday caucuses is: Clinton, 658; Sanders, 471.

Coming up

Seven more states will hold their contests over the next 10 days: Michigan and Mississippi on March 8, and Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio on March 15. What can we expect in these states?

We don’t have enough polls from the March 15 states to use those as predictors, but polls from March 8 states suggest the day will be Clinton’s. Real Clear Politics’ poll averages show Clinton with a 44 percent lead in Mississippi and a 20 percent lead in Michigan.

A couple factors can help us get a sense for what may result in these upcoming caucuses and primaries.

The race factor

Looking at how the contests have gone so far, one of the starkest (though not totally consistent) predictors of who will take what state is racial demographics. So far, Clinton has had a firm lead among African American voters. USA Today reported that African Americans comprised a quarter of the people who voted on Super Tuesday, and about eight in 10 backed Clinton. Without their overwhelming support, she might not have taken such a lead.

A look at the demographics in states where Sanders has won suggests that he performs best in states with higher white populations. For example, let’s take Nebraska, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Kansas. Census Bureau data shows that each of these states has a black population in the single digits percentage-wise, which is below the national average. We should note that the population was similarly low in Iowa and Nevada, though Sanders narrowly lost in these states. So the trend is not 100 percent consistent, but it gives us some idea of what to expect.

This makes some sense of the poll results from Michigan, where 76 percent of African Americans support Clinton, according to Politico, and support is split almost evenly among whites. And Census Bureau data shows Mississippi to have a very large black population, which likely accounts for a significant portion of Clinton’s massive lead in the polls in that state. The states to cast votes on March 15 have higher black populations than many that Sanders has won, according to Census Bureau data.

Overall, the demographics are not looking to be in Sanders’ favor through March 15, though we should note that his campaign still has some time to appeal to black voters. Also, remember that delegates will be awarded proportionally, meaning that Sanders will gain some delegates in these contests even if he doesn’t win the states’ elections outright.

The caucus factor

But race isn’t the only predictive factor going forward: Sanders may have an edge in states and territories holding caucuses instead of primaries (see here for the distinction). So far, seven of the states and American Samoa have held caucuses. Sanders has won five of these contests, all with decent-to-large margins over Clinton. Clinton won the Iowa, Nevada and American Samoa caucuses. The race was tight in those two states, and only American Samoa showed a big victory for Clinton in a caucus.

Up ahead, seven more states and four territories will hold caucuses. Five of those states and one territory will caucus in March. Sanders may have an upper hand in these races because caucuses are more demanding than primaries; they require a high level of dedication and a longer time commitment than voting in primary elections. The enthusiasm and passion Sanders has generated among supporters may encourage them to turn out in higher numbers on caucus days.

Beyond March 15

Six more states will hold their contests in the end of March, several of which have demographics more akin to the states Sanders has won so far. And after March, there are 18 states left to vote. It’s easy to look at the states that have already voted, as well as the delegate count including the pledged supers, and conclude that Clinton is going to win, but keep in mind that many of the states that voted first are not demographically in Sanders’ favor.

There’s still time for voter trends to change and for Sanders to get some big wins in remaining state competitions. Several media outlets have already forecasted doom for the Vermont senator, but it’s simply too early to make such a prediction.

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Header image: Getty

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